🔗 Share this article

It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – but right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.